Posted by: luvin | November 24, 2008

The Dream Match

If I am to analyze and predict the prospected fight of  Pacman against Hatton, I would like to believe that the Mindanaoan would have a more than enough chance of winning. Hatton is a charging bull, with much power, but is very hitable. If that other dream match would come to reallity in the summer of 2009 as hinted by Bob Arum, then as early as today, I would pick Pacquiao to win against Hatton.

However, his opponent come Dec 6 is one skillful veteran. The fight reminds me of the Lewis-Holifield bout where Holifield could hit Lewis easily, but the height and weigth advantage of Lewis prove too much for Holifield in the latter rounds. Holified thought that he could knock the bigger man out, and he later addmitted to that mistake.

What really is the chances of Manny winning  agains a bigger and craftier fighter? There is an article at written by Geno McGahee titled; Oscar Dela Hoya-Manny Pacquaiao: What to Expect from a Dream Match. The analysis is quite reasonable, and it predicts a win for Oscar Dela Hoya. The main point is size advantage.

I also believe that Oscar is too big for Manny. But now that Oscar has trimmed down to 145-146 as reported, and if he maintains that weight until Dec 6, then the only remaining advantage he has against Pacman is height. However, if Oscar now weighs around 150, and would ballon to around 155-156 or even 160, then Manny will be  in for a big disadvantage.

If Freddie Roach would insist of knocking-out Oscar, I would like to believe that Manny will go the way of Holifield when he fought Lewis. Maybe he could out run him, but outmuscle, no.

I would like to believe that Manny’s chance of winning relies mainly from his ability to evade Oscar’s punches. If in the later rounds an opportunity would appear for him to knock Oscar, he should not press on as he normally does because Dela Hoya could definitely hit him, and with one punch, the bigger guy could knock him out.

However, come fight night, If Oscar comes in at aroung 150 lbs, then Manny could go for a kill, and I think in the latter rounds Manny could KO Dela Hoya.

The chance then for Manny hinges on their ability to adapt to the physical preparation of Oscar.

But I think the biggest factor in this fight is the motivation. Oscar will be fighting for money, and the money that would come after he dispatches Manny. He is fighting Pacquiao because he thought the Pacman is an easy prey, yet he brings in the cash. He is not fighting Pacquiao because Dela Hoya thinks he is better than Margarito. It is because of the cash that Pacquiao brings with his smaller size. Pacquiao on the other hand is fighting Dela Hoya for greatness, for money, and more money that would come after if he wins. Especially if he knocks out Dela Hoya. And for that, I would bet on Pacquiao to win.


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